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mrwin

Tips Thread 2016

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1 minute ago, born a blue nose said:

No at £2.05 a pint a stella yer no :D:lol:

Ffs ad be stuck to the floor by 4 :lol:

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On 17 April 2016 at 8:56 PM, mrwin said:

Bulletproof running at Exeter on Thursday,it's a friends horse and is expected to win at a decent price???

Hope you were following???

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3 minutes ago, THE_Ibrox_Preacher said:

Said to someone I thought it would win in part due to your optimism in the race prior and my own assessment subsequently that it had a genuine go and was found wanting, the quick reappearance in the last race of the day encouraged me,....alas I wasn't on it as I'm skint. Seems to be the way for me at this game if I'm on it I lose, if i'm not it wins. Hope everyone else clocked it and got on it though. 

I took note of it from the first time it was tipped up. Ran a stormer till about 2 out then collapsed in a heap really. Typical didn't have it this time :lol:

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10 minutes ago, Rfc52 said:

I took note of it from the first time it was tipped up. Ran a stormer till about 2 out then collapsed in a heap really. Typical didn't have it this time :lol:

I don't know much about horse racing bar what I've taught myself, I don't keep notes or anything as I don't know much about that side of things; the two I expect to do something on reappearance is Typical Oscar and Abundantly, Typical Oscar pulled up in 23f handicap chase @ 5-1, Moorlands George was incorrectly a 5/2 favourite and in the end Urban Gale and Kilascan took first and second; Typical Oscar should have beaten them two but didn't turn up, Abundantly however should absolutely have won and could have won if the Jockey hadn't been told to run it into the ground, he had a mare of a time trying to knacker it in a field he could have left trailing, running it through foot deep surface water n' shit trying desperately to slow it down (my view).

Hopefully those two noticings on my part will do someone some good because I sure as fuck don't benefit from this game, I die on my arse, make a great come back and at the point I'm verging on great success I'm cleaned out by next to fuck all. 

 

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2.00 Ayr

Times wise the best 4 are;

  • Poolstock 1m11.5secs
  • Spoken words 1m13secs
  • Sea of Green 1m14seconds
  • Hab Reeh 1m14seconds

Poolstock could be a clear winner or do bugger all, it doesn't really turn up at the price it's at today and the time I found for it was some time ago (you can consider it highly risky or overdue).

Spoken words has a habit of doing things at big prices but E/W is the safest option OR betting hd2hd OR betting without Captain Joey & Poolstock (you get the picture, seriously worth considering but not for the straight out win unless insured maybe).

Sea of Green  has a lot of plus points but is yet to win and has been off the track for about 220 days (if there's been improvement then it should only have to worry about poolstock and spoken words) - this one should have a go but does have a habit of finding somewhere out the back and thus should perhaps be considered in an insurance bet 3 places or in a reverse forecast).

Hab Reeh - has better times but for conditions this one should be an E/W consideration, a major plus you would assume is this one has been with it's jockey more times than the others.

I have tried to factor in everything but I've avoided talking about jockeys/and trainers to try and be more brief. I think a reverse forecast out of those 4 is worth a shout, I think Sea of Green as an insurance bet 3 places is fairly safe and as a E/W spoken words has plus points, or, as mentioned say e/w without PoolStock.

I'd like to be more precise but even Alba Dawn and Mystical King have plus points - I've narrowed it down as far as I can be comfortable with the information in front of me - the ultimate decisions are yours.

EDIT 2.06pm RESULT

1st) Hab Reeh 9-1 (12-1 when posted by me)

2nd) Poolstock 4-1 (9-2 when posted)

3rd) Spoken words 20-1 (was 25's when I posted)

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Avispa 6.45 south

punted this earlier and smashed price up!!

365 have pushed it back out to 11/8 

Hutchy has gone up for one ride????

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6 hours ago, mrwin said:

Avispa 6.45 south

punted this earlier and smashed price up!!

365 have pushed it back out to 11/8 

Hutchy has gone up for one ride????

????

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Had a look through the 4.10 Carlisle today.

Breakable and Renfrew Street on best times and factoring in today's weights - I can't separate them, Breakable does have a split second advantage and has run well on return; Renfrew Street has a possible minus being the return from the break and the draw however it's best time is at most a second behind Breakable and that was on Kempton's slow all weather which I assume will see that time difference erased on today's Gd/Frm (Breakables best time was on similar going as today and eased off maybe a little earlier than Renfrew Street on setting that time). It's a toss up for win purposes on paper and a reverse forecast should be considered in my opinion.

Everything else either doesn't have a time to touch them or is in theory pushed out of the business end by weights/ground/distance.

There is however one exception; Alexandrakollontai, who in theory has a winning time and is favoured in the weights, everything else is good, only slight niggles are the draw as with Renfrew Street and the form being very hit and miss. Purely on ability compared to this field it should not be 20-1, it's as simple as that; that doesn't mean it won't trail out the back like loo-roll stuck to the heel of a shoe but if it turns up in form today it'll battle it out at the finish for 1st nevermind the places.

SO selections;

For win purpose toss a coin between Breakable (11-2) and Renfrew Street (8-1), Consider reverse forecast. You are either going for slightly better time and known fitness of Breakable or you are assuming that transferring from Kemptons slower all weather to today's quicker surface will see a returning Renfrew Street run home in front. Reverse forecast worth considering.

If you like to live life on the edge and like a place to return 4-1 then E/W on Alexandrakollontai (20-1) is a good bet, who know's it might just turn up to win today and as I said it's capable on best form!

If I said anything outright i'd be insinuating an advantage on paper that simply isn't there, the others aren't exactly mugs in this race but don't touch these on paper all factors considered!

EDIT 4.14 RESULT

1st Desert Haze (2-1)

2nd Fidelma Moon (12-1)

3rd Alexandrakollontai (22-1)

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5.05 Goodwood.

Brutal of me I know but there is 4 standouts here.

Storm Flower and Chandresh have the best times post (adjusting a 6f to a 5f) in their last races.

Miss Phillyjinks is a second off them however this time was posted at kempton and you'd assume you could shave a second off on better ground?!?!

Silver Wings, next best time BUT is down 19 in mark from posting that time!

SOoooooo what to pick

Well IF running to it's best Silver Wings is in contention off that mark. Chandresh is basically identical to Storm Flower so perhaps you'd favour Storm Flower as it ran recently to post it's contention time; Chandresh has a top jockey though and Storm Flower has seen usual jockey Carson ride Deer Song today leaving a less successful of late Liam Jones to ride. Phillyjinks has a time that should transfer well on to a faster surface however that's maybe the issue in this case, past races have favoured slower ground than todays; Top jockey though.

It's a toughy but I think it's a toss up between Phillyjinks (12-1) and Chandresh (11-1), I'll rule out Storm Flower (12-1) purely on the the uninspiring jockey choice, Silver Wings is the E/W angle (12-1)

Edit - Pumped.

 

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Great day out at the legends game yesterday???

Cave Hunter 4.05 Kelso????

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9 hours ago, mrwin said:

Great day out at the legends game yesterday???

Cave Hunter 4.05 Kelso????

Hope you all got on?????

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Northern Meeting 5.05 Windsor

take 10s e/w if you can get it????

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Alexandrakollontai pulled me into the 4.55 but Exoplanet Blue looks best and overpriced @ 7/2.

Should have stuck with my instincts as Alexandrakollantai wins. Rage.

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Uncle Ernie's Hot Horses doing alright just now with 10 winners from 14 over the last 10 days, all odds against.

Two for Thursday:

Ripon

3.50   Lat Hawill

Kempton

6.10   Muntahaa 

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16 hours ago, mrwin said:

The Graduate 5.05 Sandown

???

?????

Cheers boys?

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Murray & Djokovic both 19-10 with Betfair to win Wimbledon. Odds will clearly change dramatically after Djokovic's game recommences. If Djokovic turns it round he'll probs become odds on favourite again. If he doesn't, Murray will be around evens/5/4 IMO. Federer not too shabby at 7s. Great odds if you want to add to a wee acca, maybe even pick 2 of 3 and you've got a great chance of making profit............

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Had a good couple of days so I'm going to commit the sin of opening my mouth (and in turn jinxing it);

Ann Maries Reject e/w 3.35pm Worcester today E/W (I can't be 100% sure as I don't keep a book, but I'm sure I watched this one and sais "If it came here to do anything it would have savaged this race", it's 10/1 and it's only a matter of time, whether it's today or not is another matter best left to the gods to speak on). (Edit; 4 places and comes 5th, jinx is real >< )

4.25 Ayr Classy Anne 5-1 has a very good chance today of giving Goldie a winner (pulled out Sea of Green [take note of it it's time is coming 16/1+], 2nd Goninodaethat), threat is My Name Is Rio who may have more in the tank than it appears (as such I have both in acca's with Hab Reeh 4-1 winner and Kilascan 25-1 3rd). Classy Anne doesn't really have a better shot though so on balance I think today's the day. (Edit; 2nd and keeping ma mouth shut again)

Edit 3; To prove keeping my shout is how I roll, here's my latest...

kept_my_mouth_shut.jpg

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23 hours ago, THE_Ibrox_Preacher said:

Had a good couple of days so I'm going to commit the sin of opening my mouth (and in turn jinxing it);

Ann Maries Reject e/w 3.35pm Worcester today E/W (I can't be 100% sure as I don't keep a book, but I'm sure I watched this one and sais "If it came here to do anything it would have savaged this race", it's 10/1 and it's only a matter of time, whether it's today or not is another matter best left to the gods to speak on). (Edit; 4 places and comes 5th, jinx is real >< )

4.25 Ayr Classy Anne 5-1 has a very good chance today of giving Goldie a winner (pulled out Sea of Green [take note of it it's time is coming 16/1+], 2nd Goninodaethat), threat is My Name Is Rio who may have more in the tank than it appears (as such I have both in acca's with Hab Reeh 4-1 winner and Kilascan 25-1 3rd). Classy Anne doesn't really have a better shot though so on balance I think today's the day. (Edit; 2nd and keeping ma mouth shut again)

Edit 3; To prove keeping my shout is how I roll, here's my latest...

kept_my_mouth_shut.jpg

Excellent work sir! 

 

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Tamujin 8.0 Bath

will be trying tonight?

Best price 22/1

Had a few bob e/w

good luck???

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Miss Phillyjinks 6.15 kempton was expected to turn up a few races back and I reckoned that it and a couple of others in the field at big prices were the best horses (Chandresh and Stormflower were the others), none of them turned up but Stormflower has since won and Chandresh was a 16/1 2nd last night. It's a big field but I fancy it to have a go tonight and small E/W  or putting it in an acca E/W seems reasonable. If it's not tonight it'll be soon.

4.50 and Pyroclastic looks way too big, perhaps tiny e/w without 2 favs? Has a time that puts it in the frame with no favours but big price for a reason.

6.30 Agerzam has passed up good opportunities for a win, I just think it's waiting for something soon, tonight? We'll find out.

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Schoolboy Error 2.05 N.A

moneys down????

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