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*** Official Betting Thread ***


Creampuff

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That Martin Bishop is a strange guy. Unsolicited email:

 

There’s no such thing as a dead cert?… Well NOW THERE IS.

Hear me out, please read this whole email. These opportunities come around once a decade, maybe even once every 20 years. Even if you don’t agree with me, have a read…

I very rarely comment on anything other than Horse Racing but I simply cannot believe that Floyd Mayweather is 3/10 to win a boxing match this weekend, not just any boxing match, but a boxing match against an amateur. In fact McGregor isn’t even an amateur, he’s never even fought in an amateur boxing match…

To make 30% on your money when Mayweather should be at least 1/250 is an absolute giveaway.

It’s very rare, but bookmakers don’t care if they are giving good value in situations like this, as long as there are enough idiots to back the ‘poor value’ at ‘very poor prices’. If anyone reading this has had, or is thinking about, having a bet on McGregor, then you are one of the idiots giving us a free payday.

Boxing is a skill, Mayweather is one of the most naturally gifted boxers in history. McGregor is great fun, he’s likeable (in my opinion), he’s going to do very well financially out of this fight… but he’s basically a glorified pub fighter. He has never fought in a real boxing match in his life, he has no chance. Mayweather could win this fight with one arm tied behind his back.

Some of you are probably saying ‘yes, but there is still a chance Mayweather could lose’. Yes I agree, Mayweather loses this specific fight once every 250 to 1000 times. Odds vs Probability, it’s the basis of value.

Bet365 is offering 3/10 for Mayweather to win, that's the best value price you will see on any betting event this decade. General price is 1/4, thats still fantastic value making 25% on your money. You have to see through the talk, the utter bullshit that they are both spouting. They are both only interested in saying stuff that makes the public pay to watch the fight. McGregor knows he can’t win, does he care? Not at all, he’s getting paid over $100,000,000 to lose. (yes that is $100m)

Do not be fooled by the market, McGregor at around 3/1 is an absolute insult to punters around the world. Anyone betting on him is literally giving their money to the bookmakers, at horrendous value.

Bookmakers know this and are absolutely loving it. The Pro’s are all over this. I personally know of one pro with over £500,000 on Mayweather to win, he’s due a profit of £125,000. He considers it the best bet he’s EVER had. I have seen this with my own eyes. It’s a real bet.

There are very few times in betting when an opportunity presents itself like this. It’s like asking what chance Frankel had of losing to a 50 rated maiden in a 2 horse race. It really is that one sided. If I have this wrong then I will hold my hands up… but I won’t be wrong… Successful betting is all about betting value, and it will be a long time before you see value like this again.

Bet365 are going industry biggest price on Mayweather to win. They are offering 3/10. I literally can’t advise strongly enough that this is a very good value bet. Ignore the price, look at the value…

 

Aye Martin, I'm off to stick a grand on Mayweather to win £300. Fuck off.

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Nothing jumping out mate.

As Mark Prescott said, "If you want to see a good horse beaten, take it to Hamilton".

You probably want to be looking at Keith Dalgleish, Mark Johnston, Michael Dods, Kevin Ryan, Karl Burke and Ian Jardine horses for winners. 

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Just now, theblueoysterbar said:

Nothing jumping out mate.

As Mark Prescott said, "If you want to see a good horse beaten, take it to Hamilton".

You probably want to be looking at Keith Dalgleish, Mark Johnston, Michael Dods, Kevin Ryan, Karl Burke and Ian Jardine horses for winners. 

Good post mate. Couple short price favs I'd usually jump on but won't be touching the meeting personally

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Should add a bit to that instead of sounding all doom and gloom.

hamilton.png

Burke and Dalgleish 3 and 4YO+ horses to 10f, Ryan up to a mile with 3YOs and 4YOs+. Fahey, Jardine and Bryan Smart in Handicaps with their older horses.

Over the last five years the top trainers on level stake profit are:

Alan Berry +£73.00 (none out tonight)

Eric Alston +£50.40 (none out tonight)

Kevin Ryan +£45.39 (4 out) :

5.30 HAVANA STAR in a Nursey Handicap over about 6f (I don't bet on Nurseries and don't follow his 2YOs at Hamilton)

6.05 AYUTTHAYA in a Novice Stakes race over a 8 and a half (Distance just a bit too far and a 2YO)

6.35 KULGRI in a Handicap over 8 and a half (Distance just a bit too far)

7.05 RUTHERFORD in a Handicap over 6f (Has never run in a Class 3 race before. Who knows tho, probably the only horse he has out that I would bet on)

No other trainers are in profit at Hamilton, btw.

 

Off my tracker, Marten Julian has FLEETFOOT JACK in the 6.35 on his list of Handicappers to follow... Raceform also have FLEETFOOT JACK on their 100 To Follow for the season.

 

Racing Nerd glasses off for the night, hope you have a good time and get a winner mate.

 

 

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14 hours ago, theblueoysterbar said:

Should add a bit to that instead of sounding all doom and gloom.

hamilton.png

Burke and Dalgleish 3 and 4YO+ horses to 10f, Ryan up to a mile with 3YOs and 4YOs+. Fahey, Jardine and Bryan Smart in Handicaps with their older horses.

Over the last five years the top trainers on level stake profit are:

Alan Berry +£73.00 (none out tonight)

Eric Alston +£50.40 (none out tonight)

Kevin Ryan +£45.39 (4 out) :

5.30 HAVANA STAR in a Nursey Handicap over about 6f (I don't bet on Nurseries and don't follow his 2YOs at Hamilton)

6.05 AYUTTHAYA in a Novice Stakes race over a 8 and a half (Distance just a bit too far and a 2YO)

6.35 KULGRI in a Handicap over 8 and a half (Distance just a bit too far)

7.05 RUTHERFORD in a Handicap over 6f (Has never run in a Class 3 race before. Who knows tho, probably the only horse he has out that I would bet on)

No other trainers are in profit at Hamilton, btw.

 

Off my tracker, Marten Julian has FLEETFOOT JACK in the 6.35 on his list of Handicappers to follow... Raceform also have FLEETFOOT JACK on their 100 To Follow for the season.

 

Racing Nerd glasses off for the night, hope you have a good time and get a winner mate.

 

 

I owe you a drink.....

WP_20170825_18_19_49_Pro.jpg

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6 hours ago, born a blue nose said:

How the fuck can I find out if fairview Rangers and carew park won yesterday? Even paddy power still haven't settled the bet I think they are Irish junior teams ?

Can't find their results anywhere, but you could always give them a phone in the morning: 

Carew Park FC, 213 Deer Court, Carew Park, Limerick

Telephone: 00 353 87 6114758

 Fairview Rangers FC, 48 Flood Street, Pennywell, Limerick

Telephone: 00 353 61 400448

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1 minute ago, theblueoysterbar said:

Can't find their results anywhere, but you could always give them a phone in the morning: 

Carew Park FC, 213 Deer Court, Carew Park, Limerick

Telephone: 00 353 87 6114758

 Fairview Rangers FC, 48 Flood Street, Pennywell, Limerick

Telephone: 00 353 61 400448

 

 

I've been on live chat with ppower too mate I think they are struggling to find out the results too, some of the info is conflicting. Thanks a lot for that mate I just might actually do that in the morning ??

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