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Moneyball, Rangers and FM


quinty

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http://putnielsingoal.com/2013/11/14/football-manager-meets-moneyball-season-1-with-rangers/

Quite an interesting read for those of you who followed Liverpool's moneyball experiment and those who think they could manage the team.

Granted, the guy says a couple of stupid things, I blame the grandparents!! but it was interesting to see how the team finished the season, early LC exit, Scottish Cup run etc.

Also interesting in his buys and sells.

A bit geeky but interesting for all that.

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"Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one...don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players"

Do what with whatsits? Nope, I don't get it. Just bring me Miller and Novo!

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I found that quite interesting. However, the moneyball experiment at Liverpool failed but i had no idea the some of the signings were based on it, to the following extent:

with the Moneyball approach still very much in its infancy Liverpool were thrown into deadline day drama when Luis Suarez arrived, Fernando Torres departed and Andy Carroll signed for a British record fee, an eye-watering £35 million.

Carroll’s statistics showed that he scored the vast majority of his goals from crosses into the box, and so a study of the sabermetrics would attempt to lead Liverpool to players who could provide him with that service.

Charlie Adam was one of the most accurate deliverers of a dead ball in the Premier League during Blackpool’s relegation season. Aston Villa’s Stewart Downing was one of the most frequent crossers of the ball for his club over the previous campaign. And the young Sunderland midfielder Jordan Henderson was keeping pretty impressive company near the top of the chances created table.

One thing that Moneyball couldn’t prepare Fenway for was the frequently inflated prices of British footballers, though, and around £44 million was splashed out on the trio, with comparatively low wages used as a reason to back up the signings.

In the end, it didn’t work.

Adam was found out a little when operating at a higher level than he was comfortable at, whilst Downing and Henderson struggled for confidence in their first season on the global stage―confidence that they have since discovered under Brendan Rodgers.

All of which meant that this supposedly sabermetrically perfect setup simply didn’t work. In baseball, a game where the fundamental aspects are pretty much always going to be the same (i.e. a bat and a ball), these stats might have combined to form a great team, but football features different tactics and different approaches. Things didn’t work out as Liverpool had hoped.

I always wondered why these players were signed.

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I found that quite interesting. However, the moneyball experiment at Liverpool failed but i had no idea the some of the signings were based on it, to the following extent:

with the Moneyball approach still very much in its infancy Liverpool were thrown into deadline day drama when Luis Suarez arrived, Fernando Torres departed and Andy Carroll signed for a British record fee, an eye-watering £35 million.

Carroll’s statistics showed that he scored the vast majority of his goals from crosses into the box, and so a study of the sabermetrics would attempt to lead Liverpool to players who could provide him with that service.

Charlie Adam was one of the most accurate deliverers of a dead ball in the Premier League during Blackpool’s relegation season. Aston Villa’s Stewart Downing was one of the most frequent crossers of the ball for his club over the previous campaign. And the young Sunderland midfielder Jordan Henderson was keeping pretty impressive company near the top of the chances created table.

One thing that Moneyball couldn’t prepare Fenway for was the frequently inflated prices of British footballers, though, and around £44 million was splashed out on the trio, with comparatively low wages used as a reason to back up the signings.

In the end, it didn’t work.

Adam was found out a little when operating at a higher level than he was comfortable at, whilst Downing and Henderson struggled for confidence in their first season on the global stage―confidence that they have since discovered under Brendan Rodgers.

All of which meant that this supposedly sabermetrically perfect setup simply didn’t work. In baseball, a game where the fundamental aspects are pretty much always going to be the same (i.e. a bat and a ball), these stats might have combined to form a great team, but football features different tactics and different approaches. Things didn’t work out as Liverpool had hoped.

I always wondered why these players were signed.

I remember at the time the owners had advocated the moneyball approach. Shows though that you've got to get the stats right, or at least be looking at the correct stats. They were looking at getting maximum number of crosses into the box, but statistically you get a very poor return of goals per cross - look at Man Utd v Fulham the other day. Obviously when Rodgers came in he was looking at a completely different set up, hence ditching Adam and Carroll - quite impressive though the transformation in Henderson.

I think there is something to the moneyball thing, but as I say, you would need more relevant stats.

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