What Is The Future Of RFC?

[harvey 0]

I apologise for the length of this, feel free to fall asleep halfway through but I needed to get it off my chest. I don't expect many to agree with the conclusion but please try to be constructive.

After reading the Deloitte football report for 2005/06, watching developments in the TV market in the major European leagues, and living through the failed experiment of the Paul Le Guen era, I am left wondering whether Rangers FC have any future at the higher levels of club football.

In 2005/06, whilst suffering an appalling domestic season, Rangers FC reached the last 16 of Europe's premier club competition - the Champion's League. This was our best performance on the international stage for 13 years and only our 2nd reasonably successful venture abroad since the 1970's. Thanks to the 2 teams seeded above us in the group stage suffering similar managerial chaos to our own, we came through a weak group with some dogged, if uninspiring, performances and reclaimed a little bit of pride and some undoubted financial reward.

On the back of this little adventure on the continent Rangers FC generated turnover of £61.2 million and an operating profit of £4.4 million. The increased TV revenue, gate money and the sponsorship deal with JJB also reduced the club's debt from £23.1 million to £5.9 million. So far, so good.

Now, however, the end of season 2005/06 and the first half of 2006/07 is where I begin to see it all going pear-shaped. Missing 2nd place in the SPL at the end of last season has realistically cost us £6 million - £10million in turnover and although we may see the lower of those 2 figures recouped from the JJB deal, it is likely that our turnover is going to drop below the £60 million pound mark again with the profits of the previous year unlikely to be repeated. I think at this point we need to recognise that without some sort of exceptional turn of events in Scottish football, our future turnover is likely to be limited to the £55 million - £70 million range each season.

It is with this in mind that I believe SDM attempted the Paul Le Guen experiment. A manager who achieved success at both a domestic and European level on a budget not hugely superior to our own with a successful track record in developing youth and generating income through sound transfer dealings. I peronally believe that Murray was trying to create a football model similar to those at Lyon, Porto, PSV, Ajax and others where a big club in a fairly small pond could compete close to the highest level through youth development and successful transfer dealings despite being severely handicapped on TV income and wage structures.

That the experiment failed is not in doubt but, whether you were pro- or anti-Le Guen, I think everyone should recognise that that failure may have far-reaching negative consequences for the future of Rangers FC if a similar plan cannot be successfully executed by another manager or without a radical shake-up in the structures of European football.

Looking again at the likely turnover and profitability of our club in the coming seasons, let us compare these figures to those of the clubs in the heavyweight leagues. The Spanish, Italian, German and English leagues are the unchallenged leaders in generating income thanks to the size of the TV audiences they attract. Only 3 of the 20 highest earning clubs in the Deloitte report are from leagues outwith those 4: Rangers, Benfica and Lyon, all of whom are there due to good Champions League runs in 2005/06. The French and German leagues have both negotiated hugely improved TV deals for the next few years and will stretch further ahead of us, but the biggest threat to our standing in European football is undoubtedly the English.

The increased revenue from TV, internet and mobile phone deals is expected to lead to at least half of the top 20 clubs in next years report coming from England. In 2005/06, Manchester United had a turnover of £167.8 million despite an early exit from the Champions League, only coming 2nd in the EPL, before the redevelopment of Old Trafford, with the old Vodafone sponsorship deal and taking into account that they only include NET income from their sponsorship deals and not GROSS income. In 2007/08 they will be playing at a stadium with a 20% larger capacity, they have a shirt sponsorship deal 50% higher than that with Vodafone, are unlikely to fail so badly in Europe, and will share in a £900 million TV pot that will reward the top club with £50 million and even the bottom club with £27 million.

That last figure is the killer. Just imagine, in 2007/08 the club coming dead last in the EPL will earn TV revenues equal to almost 50% of our total income even if we win the league. We cannot compete with that in the SPL and because of this, we will struggle to attract the kind of players we wish to see playing for our club.

I believe there are 2 roads open to us:

1 - A successful youth development policy that allows us to regularly win the SPL, generate income through transfers and gives us the occasional foray into warmer climes for a couple of months before Christmas. Taking into account the fact that no top European clubs have come racing to buy young Scottish talent since Liverpool bought Dalglish in 1977, this future vision is very much a case of maintaining the status quo and hoping Celtic cannot do any better. This is the nightmare scenario and would, I believe, ultimately lead to the demise of Rangers FC as many young Scots would choose to watch English teams on TV rather than go to Ibrox and watch second rate talent - this may, in fact, already be happening.

2 - We lobby to join G14 in the coming years and hope for a radical change in European football which sees us join a set-up of 2 or more European leagues. With our massive fan-base, excellent stadium and increased TV revenue, would we find ourselves being humbled by the likes of West Ham and Bolton? I don't think so.

In short, in the future, if we wish our club to enjoy the standing around the world that it has enjoyed for much of the last 50 years, and we wish to see some of the best players in the world on the pitch at Ibrox, we need to leave Scottish football behind and join the march towards a European league. I never thought I would say it and I am sad to do so, but unfortunately TV money rules the sport now and I hate to see us being left behind.

I would very much like to hear other opinions on where you think we are going.

[Friedmarsbar 1]

For me it is going to prove nigh impossible to compete with the big guns in England,Italy and Spain on a regular basis. With the mega bucks deals in England that in itself is a great danger to Scottish football and more and more players across the world will be attracted there.

It is going to very interesting with American billionaires coming into the English game and maybe one of them can lead a Kerry Packer style revoution in football encompassing Rangers and Celtic as massive clubs to be part of any further TV revenues .

If that does not happen we need to rely on youth with a smattering of experienced English or foreign players (who will not be the cream,that is for sure) and hope that one day a group of young boy wonders emerge from Murray Park to take on Europe. As this is cyclical, a European trophy seems further away than ever.

There is no doubt, the future for Scottish football has to be its youth.

[Eric_Caldow 60]

With the TV money that is thrown at the EPL there is no incentive for the English clubs to join a European League set-up. The same would probably go for the French, Spanish, Germans and Italians. If they have serious input from TV companies now then why would they want to change.

I'm afraid that if there was to be a European League of sorts then it would most probably be comprised of Scottish, Scandinavian, Belgian and possibly Dutch teams. Not very inviting if you are a TV exec looking to invest large sums of cash.

I think we will just have to content ourselves with being one of the two big fish in a small pond. But then again that is no bad thing since that's what we've always been. For a country the size of Scotland to produce three teams that have had European success is no mean feat.

There is always going to be the chance of a Rangers team winning a European trophy in the future, it's just that it is going to be so much more difficult to acheive. But not impossible. B)

[*Manticore* 1,893]

Good post, I bitterly regret that the Le Guen experiment was sabotaged.

[blueben_d 40]

good post.

The only way we could compete moneywise would be in a european league, and this would not include the major countries as they receive enough money as it is.

It would be an atlantic league type thing and the money would be there as there would be interest in all the competing countries and it would also take the Rangers brand to these places more regularly and generate more income that way.

I'd hate to see us leaving scotland behind, but if we are not to truly become a backwater then something must change.

Championship sides in England already generate more turnover than most of the SPL, so we will be looking at an SPL with english league 1 and below quality players so there will be even less incentive for better players to sign for either of the old firm to play against poor opposition

[Poetry_In_Blue 1,043]

It is a very good post, but I refuse to be as pessimistic, the future of Rangers will be the development of it's youth programme as I can't see Rangers (and Celtic) ever being invited to join the English leagues. To be honest I wouldn't want that to happen anyway.

Rangers do have in improved youth policy I feel, and will start to reap the benefits in the next few seasons, and this was started before PLG came to the Gers, I feel sorry that he didn't make it a success, but I think Rangers made the right choice in the appointment of Walter and Ally.

I still believe that SDM is trying to make Rangers a more attractive prospect for a future buyer/investor and that is one of the major factors why he won't throw money at Rangers, it is possible that a new investor will splash the cash a bit if one comes in.

With regards to Scottish talent, we have to look at the bigger picture and how badly the international team had been doing for a while, dropping down rankings etc. With the international team improving, and hopefully either continue to improve or at least hold steady in the rankings then teams from other countries will pay more interest to those players who are making it possible, and looking at the way current squads seem to be changing there is going to be a higher influx of Rangers players. Gordon of Hearts is a good example, of what can happen if the international team is doing well.

[Briton 394]

Good post, I bitterly regret that the Le Guen experiment was sabotaged.

Me too. I cant help thinking that a great opportunity to make lasting changes was missed.

[Stardog 11]

we came through a weak group

I stopped reading here. If our group was weak, then Celtic's was EXCEPTIONALLY weak.

The only way I see Scottish football getting bigger is with MILLIONS invested in giving smaller teams bigger stadiums so we can have a league with 20 teams in it. It's embarrassing having 12 teams in our #1 league.

[nvager 498]

Good post, but the PLG experiment failed for only one reason - PLG himself. He bought in a bunch of DUDS and did not research the SPL before coming here. He badly man managed players and his tactics and RESULTS were poor. All of his buys with the exception of Clement (who was not great and is gone) were never going to lead us to success.

WS and his team know Scottish football and we stand a far better chance under them.

The youth teams at RFC are currently doing very well, have improved a lot and in a couple of years will begin to really help out at a senior level.

Things will IMPROVE. We are in better hands now.

If we can get SDM to spend a little more in the Summer then that WILL help.

Keep believing.

The EPL bubble will burst one day too.

[cooper1989 0]

Good post, but the PLG experiment failed for only one reason - PLG himself. He bought in a bunch of DUDS and did not research the SPL before coming here. He badly man managed players and his tactics and RESULTS were poor. All of his buys with the exception of Clement (who was not great and is gone) were never going to lead us to success.

WS and his team know Scottish football and we stand a far better chance under them.

The youth teams at RFC are currently doing very well, have improved a lot and in a couple of years will begin to really help out at a senior level.

Things will IMPROVE. We are in better hands now.

If we can get SDM to spend a little more in the Summer then that WILL help.

Keep believing.

The EPL bubble will burst one day too.

Guys, it's all relative. if the worst tea min the EP get 27 mill, so what? To buy any player decent is 8 mill and up. A player that arguable woul dnot get a regular game for us (perhaps.) So yes, their revenues are extraordinary -- but so are the expenses.

And... not all good players can ALL play at the same time in the EPL. Keep the faith bears. I feel optimistic.

Sure, it would be nice to have all kinds of dosh. But.. ffs, Rangers from a wee country like Soctland is the 18th richest Football club? That fills me with pride.