Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - Chris Graham

[PRW. 5,631]

http://chrisgraham76.wordpress.com/2011/11/28/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/

If I’ve learnt anything as a Rangers fan, it’s that you shouldn’t believe everything you hear in the media and statistics are there to be manipulated in whatever way the person who shouts loudest wishes them to be.

That’s why I thought it might be an idea to properly examine the recent Scottish Government stats on sectarian crime. Released with exemplary timing, to coincide with the amendments stage of the Offensive Behaviour at Football Bill, they have been widely reported by our media as evidence that sectarianism in Scotland is a huge problem which requires this draconian bill. Is that really the case?

If you wish to check these stats for yourself, (and I hope after you read this you might want to) then you can do so here: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/17154035/7

The first thing that struck me when reading the figures was that, despite the sensationalist headlines, it didn’t seem that a great number of offences had taken place. I know it isn’t the done thing to make light of any crime - and I’m not excusing the ones that were carried out – however the question is whether the response to sectarianism is merited by the scale of the problem. 693 charges in a year may seem significant but compare that with the last recorded figures for racist incidents in a year, 6,452, and you may start to see what I mean. (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/14105100/23). There were also 448 charges last year aggravated by reason of sexual orientation. Perhaps the cut-off figure for moral outrage is 500 charges?

In a statement that you feel might have been prepared before the figures were even released, Bishop Tartaglia, the President of the Communications Commission of the Bishops Conference of Scotland (yikes!), stated these figures were “an indicator of entrenched hostility” towards Catholics in Scotland. Well if that is the case then I would hate to be a Pakistani in Scotland as there is a great deal more evidence of “entrenched hostility” towards that group and I don’t see any new laws being brought in to deal with it.

Another aspect not adequately presented in the media was the breakdown of figures contained in the report. Firstly, of the 693 charges only 587 actually went to court: And off those 587 cases only 390 have resulted in convictions. It seems, when penning their headlines, some members of the media failed to take into account the principle of innocent until proven guilty. Why charges in which no crime was proven to be committed are included in the report is something you would need to ask the authors. I presume it can’t just be because they wanted to bump up the figures a bit?

Let’s also have a look at who the targets of this not-so-rampant sectarianism were. Well it turns out to be mainly the police. Seem like an unlikely target don’t they? Especially when you consider that there is virtually no way in which someone being ‘sectarian’ to a police officer can possibly know their actual religion. Also, as far as I am aware, the police in Scotland are not affiliated with any particular religious group in the same way as say, a football club might be. The police accounted for 41.5% of the charges. In second place in the league of receiving sectarian abuse comes a rather vague group – ”the community”. This, when you read the report, seems to be a euphemism for “nobody in particular”. It covers people wandering down the street singing songs shouting at “nobody in particular”. This accounts for 33% of the charges. The remainder of the charges were on members of the public (22.6%) and workers (10.5%).

Once you look at the groups ‘targeted’ above it won’t surprise you that 72.5% of the charges were only for Breach of the Peace. Only 39 assault charges were recorded – there is no data in the report on how many of them actually lead to convictions. The severity is also not mentioned so we are left to guess. Of all the convictions, only 70 resulted in custodial sentences. The vast majority resulted in fines. This is not a crime wave sweeping our country.

The notes in the report also give an insight into the background to the figures. Firstly, the police reports have been interpreted by the writers of the report. This is a research project. Police reports have been examined and certain observations made, leading to a conclusion that one or other religious group was targeted. There are large gaps in the information including any data on the offender’s religion. I would argue that it is perfectly possible for two people of the same religion to be involved in an incident in which so called ‘sectarian’ language is used. Indeed I have witnessed such drink-fuelled incidents myself. Such an incident is not genuinely sectarian but a ridiculous stramash. It would be included in these figures.

Perhaps the most important statistic in relation to football and this proposed bill is that only 12.9% of these reported charges took place at football matches. So why then, Mr Salmond, do we have a bill which specifically targets football fans? Even if there was a sectarian issue in this country it certainly hasn’t been taking place predominantly at football.

I urge people to read the report. Does it really paint a picture of a deeply sectarian country? A place where Catholics, or indeed Protestants, fear to walk the streets? Where people are discriminated against because of religion? If Scotland is a sectarian country then it also is a hugely racist and deeply homophobic country. In fact it is approximately ten times more racist than it is sectarian. Have you heard any politicians on the TV or radio telling us what a racist country we live in? Have there been gay rights groups on the front page of the ‘papers telling us it isn’t safe for gay people in Scotland? That they are victims of “entrenched hostility”?

The term ‘Scotland’s Shame’ is bandied about a lot these days in relation to sectarianism. Rangers fans are not ‘Scotland’s Shame’. Even Celtic fans, despite their worsening behaviour and many people rightly taking issue with their songs glorifying terrorism, are not worthy of the tag. ‘Scotland’s Shame’ is that we have elected people into power who are happy to ignore society’s real problems for an easy headline. These politicians (and I include almost all of them, not just the SNP) are more interested in petty political point scoring than they are in solving real problems. Labour MSP’s seem to only object to the proposed bill on the grounds that they didn’t get to be the party to enact it. They all seem to agree that sectarianism is a massive problem despite there being little evidence to back this up. They herald these figures as if they proved their point when in fact they do quite the opposite.

The simple fact is that dwindling interest in religion and the growing number of interests whose future depends on a ‘sectarian problem’ are combining to create a situation where perpetuating this myth becomes a matter of priority. Politicians are happy to jump on any bandwagon that gets them some publicity. This week the Scottish Government announced an extra £9m to fund anti-sectarian initiatives. Ask yourself how much incentive there is for the groups receiving this money to actually admit the problem has been all but solved by the simple passage of time and natural changes in Scottish society.

[JCDBigBear 10,830]

Good article Mr Graham. I also had a look at the crime statistics report from which the media reported and came to similar conclusions as Mr Graham. The figures for "sex" crimes were 10 times greater which should surely take greater precedence. I would also theorise that catholics have been and are more likely to report any such perceived sectarian offence. Indeed I believe that they have been encouraged to do so. The interpretation of the figures is also open to question. People with their own agenda put their own slant on the figures. In the context of crime in Scotland, sectarian crimes are almost insignificant when one considers less than 700 from some 500,000+ but political gain requires their exaggeration.

[Jack The Flipper 5,936]

You're really surprised politicians have been turning on the spin machine to satisfy their own agendas and push through with policies and laws they want introduced?

[Blue_Snib 80]

Great article, it's great how the SNP manipulated the stats like every arrest led to a conviction scummy bastards

[Tamb 126]

What a great and extremely fair article. It's amazing that this has been allowed to go as far as it has. The SNP should be having a total rethink of the proposed legislation as it is attempting to address a problem that doesn't really exist. We don't need new laws to deal with any problems that may arise at a football match, there are plenty of laws regarding BOP and Anti Social Behaviour already. Rather than make the SNP more popular in the country, this will more than likely cost them suppport. We should all be contacting our MSP's without delay and tell them what we think about the Bill, before it affects us or someone close to us.

[Adoniram 1,919]

What a great and extremely fair article. It's amazing that this has been allowed to go as far as it has. The SNP should be having a total rethink of the proposed legislation as it is attempting to address a problem that doesn't really exist. We don't need new laws to deal with any problems that may arise at a football match, there are plenty of laws regarding BOP and Anti Social Behaviour already. Rather than make the SNP more popular in the country, this will more than likely cost them suppport. We should all be contacting our MSP's without delay and tell them what we think about the Bill, before it affects us or someone close to us.

it has been allowed to go as far as this because of the apathy of the so called silent majority who sit on their arses and moan about things on football forums (No dig at you personally) When it comes to voting them in or out again the apathetic sit on their backsides whilst they mobilise in numbers to get their people in and ultimately their views heard.

A quick example of what i mean. There was a recent by election in Hillhead where only 13.65 % of the electorate bothered their backsides to go out and vote. Guess who mobilised their voters though to ensure they got elected...the SNP. They went out canvassing and they made sure their voters knew there was an election. Christ the Green Party even got more votes than the Conservative and Unionist.

Now i know for a fact there is a party called the Scottish Unionist Party who yet again failed to put up a candidate. One has to ask what is the point of this party and who exactly are they. Well i can tell you one thing that won't surprise many. A certain Mark Dingwall is involved with them and as per usual the hand of failure is never far away from anything he is involved in.

http://www.scottishunionistparty.co.uk/

Where was our voice?

Who was our voice?

http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/YourCouncil/Elections_Voting/Election_Results/Hillhead_ByElection_2011