Brighter future: Div3 RFC or SPL?

[Ricky_ 893]

Whats your opinion on who will come out better in the long run, if RFC go to division 3?

We have to consider firstly, what's in store for us if we end up there.

The Future for RFC

Playing Squad:

We lose the majority of players over the age of about 23 imo. Perhaps McCulloch sees out his career with us because hes a gers man through and thourgh, it may also inspire 1 or 2 others. David Healy for instance? But certainly we're looking at a squad of youngsters & possibly picking up a few journeymen along the way. An RFC in division 3 may still be a more attractive prospect for someone like Stephen Thomson to come back rather than stick around in an what could become the SPL in abyss.

Home Attendance

(i dont doubt for a second we'll pack out every away ground). Home attendace will depend on prices imo. The loyalty our fans show will pay dividends but prices will be a deciding factor. The rise & rebuild of the Rangers from Division 3 back up will interest alot of fans, but we seriously need to be looking at prices of about £12 a game for Div 3, and a gradually increase back to where we were. With a young squad though, we get away with lower prices on the basis we have a much lower wage bill.

TV & Sponsors

We lose Tennants. We lose Sky money. But unlike SPL clubs, our outgoings & current contracts are not based upon reliance of TV money, as we are debt-free with a clean slate. Much like home attendance, our income will be balanced with each league. We start at he bottom, with a much smaller revenue & turnover forecast, we gradually increase income through higher ticket prices & better sponsorship deals as we move through the leagues.

Ability to gain promotion

not everyone thinks this is a given, but lets be honest, we will trounce every team in our wake. It's very simple, even in the Div3 we can still attract the best youngsters in the country and plenty of seasoned SPL standard players. I'd argue that our attandance figures alone even in Div 3 will still give us the ability to attract better players than even Dunfermline or ICT can.

backing from investors -

perhaps the biggest stumbling block. The investors may see this as more of a gamble, and will be less interested in a lengthy rebuilding process. My biggest fear is that the board & investors feel it would be more beneficial to their investments to suffer a season or 2 of SPL sanctions & stay in the SPL, if that is what is put on the tabe for us.

Anymore, feel free to give your opinion.

Next, how does the SPL cope without Rangers?

The SPL might not be obliterated like most of us think, but i struggle to see how any club in the SPL could possibly progress from the current standard. From 1990 to 2012, we have seen the standard of the SPL diminish while the standard of the EPL goes from strength to strength. The single biggest reason? TV money. This week we found out the SKY deal with the SPL is around £110m. Yesterday it was announced the EPL done a deal with BT & SKY for £3BILLION in TV revenue.

Attendances -

we need to wait and see. will the fans come out in there droves now RFC are gone like they are saying? I very much doubt it, they might for the novelty value at first, but it's highly unlikely they suddenly find sustainable, higher attandances on the basis "rangers are no longer in the league". Can we really take credit for keeping 5000+ fans away from each club, each season?

TV -

as mentioned, £110m is the figure from SKY. This ofcourse is based upon the commercial value the 4 OF's per season bring in. Lets not beat around the bush, SKY simply does not pay £110m for the SPL without RFC, because the viewing figures simply wont justify that. The big question is, do they pull the plug completely, or renegotiate a figure more likely to be fraction of the current deal? There has been talk from Celtic about wanting to generate their own TV revenue by showing games via a celtic TV subscription or online. This could work, CFC have a big enough fan base. But thats no use to the other 11 teams in the league if they aren't getting any TV money.

Sponsors -

Sponsorships are based on exposure. If the TV deal does collapse, and there is little or no interest in the league, the value of the advertising clubs offer is severly diminished. Even with the current SKY deal, + gaurenteed LIVE SKY matches with the old firm, & anything between 6 & 8 fixtures with the old firm per season, some of the SPL clubs currently still have rather weak sponsors. Dunfermline for example is "the Purvis Group" and obsecure plant hire company most have never heard of. Motherwell is Cashconverters, Hearts is Wonga!.com.

These companies are not stupid, advertising and the price you pay for it, is entirely based upon exposure. Placing a full page ad in The Sun costs alot more than sticking something the size of a stamp in the back of the Daily Sport. SPL clubs will either lose their sponsors or at least, renegotiate their contracts with dropping their tariff they charge.

wage bill & transfer budget -

Terry Butcher has already stated that the entire ICT budget and business plan has essentially been put on hold until they have some clarity. Only a fool would believe it's business as usual. All of the above factors have to be considered before a reasonable business plan can be put into place. Are any teams posting profits? I'd imagine most clubs are breaking even at best. Dunfermline & Hearts have faced financial issues and not been abel to pay players on time & tax on time, even within current budgets. Once the above points are realised every club is likely to face a huge drop in revenue & income. Their current outgoings are simply unstanaible and there will need to be cuts. Players may need to be sold and free's braught in. The wage bill's will need to be dramatically slashed. Ticket prices may need to increase. enitre business plans will be turned on their heads. And some, without a doubt in my mind, won't beable to cope with the transition. It's comparable to any business who has just lost the crux of their income stream. If you run a business and are dependable on only 1 or 2 sources for your income, you will struggle if your main buyers pull out or go bust, leaving you to downsize.

administration -

The SPL clubs made a rod for their own back by passing new sanctions, which could now bite them in the arse if above points transpire with RFC in div 3. Failure to pay players or HMRC on time will result in sanctions. Clubs struggling financially if the lose the majority of their income, this will be the first stage. The will inevitably be late with tax & wage payments becasue cash flow will be needed to fufill fixtures & pay policing/electricity/gas bills.

If clubs then slip into administration, they lose 1/3rd of their points from the previous season. If it's Motherwell, they get a whopping 22 points whacked off. Combined with the strains of Administration and inevitable redundancies they will, at best, be in a relegation dog fight. At worst, they will go down and may not even be-able to fufill fixtures (like Gretna, the SPL had to pay Gretnas wage bill so they would fufill fixtures. That can't happen again, the SFA didn't get tough on insolvency events to turn round and start paying wages again). If even 1 club can't fufill it's fixtures, i honestly think that the entire SPL will crumble. such an event means that other clubs lose FURTHER revenue on missing out on fixtures, and ofcourse, the league table could be turned on it's head as all points against that team are voided.

liquidation

ironically, we could be promoted to the 2nd division and see a bunch of SPL clubs a league behind us if they suffer the same fate as RFC. If it can happen to the countries biggest club, ou bet your ass it can happen to the St. Johnstones & Motherwells of this world.

conclusion

the scenario of RFC starting again, which, lets be honest, we probably should be, is daunting for Both RFC, in the sense our current squad is obliterated (but it may be anyway if we are honest), and also is a daunting prospect for the SPL when we consider a domino effect of financial loss, from TV revnue, sponsorship, and ultimatly attendances. Ultimately, we are better off. We have our fresh start, the hard part is over. If this is how it transpires, sit back bears, light a cigar & pour yourself a gin. We know the hell that is in store for these clubs as they fall into the abyss like we did. Enjoy every second. Ultimatly, Rangers will pioneer the future of Scottish Football, which at somepoint, im sure, will have to be entirely restructured from head to toe.

[Guest]

Nothing good can come from us going to div 3 the team would be ripped apart,supporters would disappear and they would despite what some say and more importantly than all would there be an SPL to return. I honestly think clubs would fold without us which is why they must think hard before voting against us.

[WVB 2,560]

Nothing good can come from us going to div 3 the team would be ripped apart,supporters would disappear and they would despite what some say and more importantly than all would there be an SPL to return. I honestly think clubs would fold without us which is why they must think hard before voting against us.

If you aren't up for the battle, cheerio. Plenty clubs left for you to support in the magical SPL.

[Dunny_01 2,007]

well done mate, great read and all very true in my opinion!

[Ricky_ 893]

well done mate, great read and all very true in my opinion!

thanks dunny ya fuckin legend.

[Turnberry18 3,204]

well done mate, great read and all very true in my opinion!

Dunny, what next for Walter do you think.

[Guest]

If you aren't up for the battle, cheerio. Plenty clubs left for you to support in the magical SPL.

Beleive me if Rangers wheren't in the SPL i would avoid it. I don't beleive Rangers be going to division 3 so why would i support that idea. Again scottish football will die very quickly if Rangers are not in the SPL for 4 years.

[Guest]

By the way mate great post obviously put a lot of effort in.

[GMac 1,405]

Good analysis. I wouldn't rule out a TV contract for Rangers playing in the lower divisions though, albeit a lower amount. Games are played at 12.30 on a Sunday for a reason, they know that punters will stay in the pub and watch the next three games or subscribe to the full package, SKY wouldn't give a fuck if its Rangers against Elgin, or Rangers against Aberdeen. But if it was Aberdeen against Ross County?

[Ricky_ 893]

Good analysis. I wouldn't rule out a TV contract for Rangers playing in the lower divisions though, albeit a lower amount. Games are played at 12.30 on a Sunday for a reason, they know that punters will stay in the pub and watch the next three games or subscribe to the full package, SKY wouldn't give a fuck if its Rangers against Elgin, or Rangers against Aberdeen. But if it was Aberdeen against Ross County?

Rangers against Elgin certainly woudl draw more audience than Aberdeen vs Ross county, indeed you are correct. Because the huge support this club has will tune in. im willing to bet plenty Celtic fans & neutrals would watch with interest aswell to see the once-in-a-lifetime event really of the glasgow rangers playing these teams. It's actually almost comical.

A TV deal though? I doubt SKY bother. We may find a way of generating revenue by showing them on Rangers TV or maybe something like BBC Alba will bid something to get the rights. If TV companies think they can get a decent audience from RFC fans interested in watching, perhaps a station like Channel 5 might think it's an opportunity to broadcast football, if they can buy the rights at a low enough price to find some commercial value in it.

[Guest]

Rangers against Elgin certainly woudl draw more audience than Aberdeen vs Ross county, indeed you are correct. Because the huge support this club has will tune in. im willing to bet plenty Celtic fans & neutrals would watch with interest aswell to see the once-in-a-lifetime event really of the glasgow rangers playing these teams. It's actually almost comical.

A TV deal though? I doubt SKY bother. We may find a way of generating revenue by showing them on Rangers TV or maybe something like BBC Alba will bid something to get the rights. If TV companies think they can get a decent audience from RFC fans interested in watching, perhaps a station like Channel 5 might think it's an opportunity to broadcast football, if they can buy the rights at a low enough price to find some commercial value in it.

No channel apart from BBC Alba would touch the 3rd division rangers or no rangers. Especially English run channels look at the way they treat Scottish football now.

[GMac 1,405]

Rangers against Elgin certainly woudl draw more audience than Aberdeen vs Ross county, indeed you are correct. Because the huge support this club has will tune in. im willing to bet plenty Celtic fans & neutrals would watch with interest aswell to see the once-in-a-lifetime event really of the glasgow rangers playing these teams. It's actually almost comical.

A TV deal though? I doubt SKY bother. We may find a way of generating revenue by showing them on Rangers TV or maybe something like BBC Alba will bid something to get the rights. If TV companies think they can get a decent audience from RFC fans interested in watching, perhaps a station like Channel 5 might think it's an opportunity to broadcast football, if they can buy the rights at a low enough price to find some commercial value in it.

Yeah PPV would be possible, tie it in with the season ticket, i.e season ticket holders get a discount on PPV. All sorts of possibilities if we're smart about it.

[ianbear007 15]

Beleive me if Rangers wheren't in the SPL i would avoid it. I don't beleive Rangers be going to division 3 so why would i support that idea. Again scottish football will die very quickly if Rangers are not in the SPL for 4 years.

if rangers end up in div 3 we will be out of the spl for 3 seasons not 4

[Ricky_ 893]

No channel apart from BBC Alba would touch the 3rd division rangers or no rangers. Especially English run channels look at the way they treat Scottish football now.

you can't really say for sure without seeing what the possibilities would be. Channel 5 show some pretty obscure stuff, such as Europe League games featuring 2 sides from europe that you have a hard time believing anyone would watch. But in actual fact, if a Polish side were to face an Italian side in the Europa league, channel 5 may think there is enough Polish & italian resident od descents within the UK to pull in an audience.

it's all about viewing figures for TV channels to justify higher tarrifs on adverts.

how can you say for sure that a TV channel couldn;t pick up Div3 rights at an absoulte bargain-basement price, and then turn a profit on showing the games based upon te viewing figures it could generate by RFC fans watching? Many scottish football fans may aslo simply tune in out of interest if it were on a free channel, like 5.

[ianb1547 3,767]

we be buggered with the commentary on BBC Alba

[Ricky_ 893]

we be buggered with the commentary on BBC Alba

it would instantly be 100x better than listening to Burley or Walker.

[pandabear 15]

Us being in the lower division would be fantastic for the other clubs in TV deals. We'd still have enough interest for something like STV to buy rights to show our games. IF i was in charge of STV, I'd be relishing at the chance of buying rights for Rangers games at a cheap price. The 'holy grail' of Scottish TV is live football, within thst there are old firm fans.

St Mirren v Inverness or Dumbarton v Rangers?

[iain1712 336]

Just a wee point I was thinking about.

it's a given that some of the spl clubs will vote us back in to safeguard their income.

But what if they vote us out that leaves them free to call an spl board meeting and vote to get rid of the 10-2 voting margin.

By doing this they can vote to redistribute sponsor money more evenly in the league and maybe even vote back in The sharing of gate money from league games.

Now would that not be a fantastic parting gift for us to leave the paedophile harbourers.

[loyalfollower 1,543]

it would instantly be 100x better than listening to Burley or Walker.

Too right

[bluepeter 5,627]

Good stuff Ricky_

Available for publication?

[loyalfollower 1,543]

So some guys on here indicating they only go to games that are of significance to them?? Us going to division 3 could be the making of scots football. Why does it have to be the death of it? S.p.l is dreadful but because rangers play in it I go watch it. Ive seen too many people go to c.l games like inter or barca then because its killie on the weekend they cant be arsed. Them people can go do one. Infact they can go support the mhanks for all I care!!

As far as death of scots football- every team and governing bodies would have to come together to make a structure than ensures we have one governing board a straight set of rules from annan athletic to rangers-none of this making it up or kicking us when we're down.

They should also re-do the leagues to 2 tiers of 16 or 18 and re structure the voting system. All these points I think would make the whole of scottish football more competitive and a joy to watch. Which in turn generates a bigger audience and bigger income. Too many egos in s.p.l only interested in a short term fix,greed gets the better of everyone eventually and its about time the authorities came up with a long term acheivable goal

[DAVIDATDI 22]

Great read Ricky_ enjoyed it

[Ricky_ 893]

I agree lf, a bigger league is more logical but seems to blocked by the sky contract of 4 of's oer season

[Ricky_ 893]

Good stuff Ricky_

Available for publication?

Fire away mate

[bluepeter 5,627]

Fire away mate

Thanks mate