NorthernLights 2,526 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Just an embarrassing attempt to introduce analytics to football so hipsters on twitter can act as if they know more about the game Willis 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Traive 22,777 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Bearsden bear said: Expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken. xG is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time. Some saddo has worked out how the league table might look based on above criteria. Some saddo really, really needs to get his hole. LiverpoolBlue and scottyscott1963 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsden bear 2,376 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, Colin Traive said: Some saddo really, really needs to get his hole. 😂😂 analytics and sports science are big in football nowadays tbf. I copied/pasted below on Tomas Frank at Brentford When it comes to assessing the ability of the team (and therefore of the manager), performances are more important than results. The Brentford board will be happy as long as the team is meeting a series of pre-determined Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) based around xG. Guess they trust the numbers first and foremost and expect results will come if the performance data is good? Flip side, if XG is pish and results are good then likely to start losing games as not sustainable. SIRB_72 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunk and disorderly. 14,421 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 That's 56 fucked then. Will just have to concentrate on the cups. LiverpoolBlue 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIRB_72 4,000 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 48 minutes ago, Bearsden bear said: 😂😂 analytics and sports science are big in football nowadays tbf. I copied/pasted below on Tomas Frank at Brentford When it comes to assessing the ability of the team (and therefore of the manager), performances are more important than results. The Brentford board will be happy as long as the team is meeting a series of pre-determined Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) based around xG. Guess they trust the numbers first and foremost and expect results will come if the performance data is good? Flip side, if XG is pish and results are good then likely to start losing games as not sustainable. Brentford are a good example of this type of thing working. I know they use what they call "justice" tables (which funnily enough sounds just right for THAT mob) to see how well they're doing and what players they should sign. I posted earlier though it doesn't work so much up here with us or them because for 60/70% of the game we will be in the oppositions half and box, getting shots away so naturally our xg will be higher 9/10. In celtic's case it doesn't take into account them having two centre halfs left with two or three guys running at them 30 yards from goal which could end up a dangerous situation for example. I'm also pretty sure xg doesn't rate headers very highly on the metric, something that mob really struggle with. Like you mentioned it's all for sustainability over a season+ but teams like Dundee, Dundee Utd etc. don't play Rangers or celtic with sustainability over a season in mind. They just want to get through the game. Which is why it isn't a very good model to look at with us and them involved up here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberfeldyBlue 1,550 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Proof THE PROJECT is working? Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsden bear 2,376 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, SIRB_72 said: Brentford are a good example of this type of thing working. I know they use what they call "justice" tables (which funnily enough sounds just right for THAT mob) to see how well they're doing and what players they should sign. I posted earlier though it doesn't work so much up here with us or them because for 60/70% of the game we will be in the oppositions half and box, getting shots away so naturally our xg will be higher 9/10. In celtic's case it doesn't take into account them having two centre halfs left with two or three guys running at them 30 yards from goal which could end up a dangerous situation for example. I'm also pretty sure xg doesn't rate headers very highly on the metric, something that mob really struggle with. Like you mentioned it's all for sustainability over a season+ but teams like Dundee, Dundee Utd etc. don't play Rangers or celtic with sustainability over a season in mind. They just want to get through the game. Which is why it isn't a very good model to look at with us and them involved up here. I think like all these things that you can be aware of them and looking at trends would be useful, but at the same time not treat them as gospel. Its never just the one thing that gives you an edge but fine gains in a number of areas that can make a difference. Pretty sure we us analytics firm for injury prevention too. Apparently Atalanta have been doing it for years and have reduced soft tissue injuries dramatically. Stats on injuries have been built up over years with a huge database of players. They claim they can predict when to rest and/or tweak training regimes to reduce likelihood of injuries. SIRB_72 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernLights 2,526 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Any time somebody says performance is more important than results I just shake my head The Blue, Drunk and disorderly., LiverpoolBlue and 1 other 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thermopylae 15,286 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 They do say it's the religion of miracles Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moody Blue Legend 61,474 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Does this mean we need to go through the qualifiers for Europa League then? Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KaiserJon 12,393 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 11 hours ago, Moody Blue Legend said: Does this mean we need to go through the qualifiers for Europa League then? Depends how Villa do.... Moody Blue Legend 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeds_Bear 8,110 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Remember those periods under Gerrard when we couldn't score for toffee but were having so many chances every game, I don't remember any one of us pulling up a made up table on xG. They're ALL desperate weirdos, they crave to be liked and can't bear the thought that people are looking at them right now and asking how they're six points behind an under performing Rangers team. 'But we hit the bar 3 times this weekend!' Aye, but you didn't score and you dropped more points. ritchieshearercaldow and LiverpoolBlue 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyserSoze 14,545 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 19 hours ago, Bearsden bear said: 😂😂 analytics and sports science are big in football nowadays tbf. I copied/pasted below on Tomas Frank at Brentford When it comes to assessing the ability of the team (and therefore of the manager), performances are more important than results. The Brentford board will be happy as long as the team is meeting a series of pre-determined Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) based around xG. Guess they trust the numbers first and foremost and expect results will come if the performance data is good? Flip side, if XG is pish and results are good then likely to start losing games as not sustainable. Surely one KPI would be ”score more goals than the opposition on matchday” 😂 RS4_wul and blaudrup 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsden bear 2,376 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, KeyserSoze said: Surely one KPI would be ”score more goals than the opposition on matchday” 😂 You gotta trust the process bud😂😂 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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